Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.360561 5.212842 6.159585 7.285246 8.582941 10.027706 11.753427
2025-03-16 2.904296 3.983176 5.322552 7.088813 9.335746 12.076057 15.645345
2025-03-23 2.236737 3.449924 5.103126 7.474574 10.734811 14.998471 20.923095
2025-03-30 1.714152 2.942483 4.761887 7.570251 11.694315 17.409763 25.781508
2025-04-06 1.333841 2.528760 4.438663 7.585813 12.480977 19.610287 30.526686
2025-04-13 1.051717 2.190502 4.144456 7.561901 13.158057 21.671938 35.219710
2025-04-20 0.935544 2.107269 4.238237 8.148579 14.818245 25.317409 42.528162
2025-04-27 0.794279 1.938326 4.144869 8.391547 15.929578 28.193425 48.876849
2025-05-04 0.689615 1.814611 4.105978 8.712086 17.187143 31.386309 55.942289
2025-05-11 0.571300 1.628750 3.909360 8.704754 17.857302 33.652580 61.663225
2025-05-18 0.451454 1.403881 3.587396 8.400804 17.943245 34.919150 65.801264
2025-05-25 0.349876 1.191610 3.246770 7.999494 17.786048 35.726743 69.190037
2025-06-01 0.287256 1.066061 3.082128 7.953114 18.332476 37.876654 75.146589
2025-06-08 0.230265 0.936714 2.881549 7.798358 18.648496 39.640836 80.572202
2025-06-15 0.209346 0.912756 2.939958 8.238381 20.231375 43.892076 90.765093
2025-06-22 0.178432 0.843610 2.864496 8.350187 21.127395 46.891145 98.839587
2025-06-29 0.149527 0.769550 2.758609 8.369922 21.821586 49.542578 106.425597
2025-07-06 0.124277 0.698002 2.642882 8.344910 22.408911 52.017759 113.821708
2025-07-13 0.119207 0.708100 2.775242 8.983417 24.568612 57.814813 127.942027
2025-07-20 0.105768 0.675743 2.768152 9.247679 25.880851 61.954002 139.047637
2025-07-27 0.095589 0.653963 2.790700 9.596045 27.423673 66.669836 151.540293
2025-08-03 0.080467 0.599840 2.691986 9.588098 28.103224 69.603675 160.627877
2025-08-10 0.063196 0.523156 2.493578 9.257817 27.949648 70.733082 166.119800